South Africans may take some comfort in the recent performance of Eskom’s electricity generation, which has shown signs of greater consistency and reliability. According to the latest electricity update for June 2025 released by the Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA), the national power utility’s operations have become more stable. This report, compiled by the Council’s chief economist, André Lourens, provides an in-depth analysis of Eskom’s performance over recent months. This comes at a time when public confidence in the power utility has been severely tested, with years of unreliable service leaving households and businesses frustrated.
Key Takeaways
- Eskom’s Power Generation Sees Notable Improvement: Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) surpassed 60% in June 2025 for the first time this year, signalling more stable generation performance and reduced reliance on emergency measures.
- Load-Shedding Risk Lower Than Previous Winters: The utility maintained unplanned outages below the 15,000 MW threshold throughout most of June and into July, helping South Africa avoid blackouts during peak winter demand.
- Forecasts Suggest Continued Stability Through 2025: The NTCSA’s latest 52-week outlook projects sufficient generation capacity even under higher-risk scenarios, indicating growing confidence in Eskom’s ability to meet national electricity demand.
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Steady Gains Since 2024 in Electricity Output
The MCSA highlighted that electricity production across the country has been gradually improving since the beginning of 2024. This positive momentum has continued into the middle of 2025, reflecting a welcome upward trend. One of the key metrics used to assess Eskom’s operational effectiveness is the Energy Availability Factor (EAF), which measures the percentage of time that power stations are capable of producing electricity. In June 2025, the EAF showed a marked improvement, averaging 60.6 percent for the month. This upward trend is seen as a critical indicator that Eskom is regaining some operational footing after prolonged periods of poor performance and public scrutiny.
Significant Milestone in Availability and Reliability
This figure is particularly noteworthy because it marks the first time in 2025 that the EAF has exceeded the 60 percent threshold for an entire month. According to the MCSA’s assessment, this increase in the EAF is considered a meaningful milestone. It indicates more efficient performance by Eskom’s generation plants, supported by deliberate operational strategies and a temporary reduction in planned maintenance activities. These measures collectively contributed to the absence of load-shedding in June, even as the country experienced a surge in electricity demand during the colder winter period.
Lourens explained that EAF figures tend to rise during the winter months, largely because Eskom temporarily reduces its planned maintenance schedule to ensure more generating capacity is available to handle the higher demand. In preparation for a particularly cold front in early June, Eskom managed to return approximately 2,500 megawatts of generation capacity to the grid. This proactive step allowed the utility to better anticipate and respond to the expected increase in residential electricity usage.
Sources close to Eskom’s operations suggest that better logistical coordination and more stable coal deliveries have also played a part in sustaining higher output levels.
Strategic Use of Emergency Reserves Supports Grid Stability
Emergency power reserves were effectively managed and strategically deployed throughout the month, helping to stabilise the national grid during periods of heightened strain. As a result, Eskom succeeded in maintaining unplanned outages below the critical 15,000 megawatt mark for most of June, and this trend has extended into the early part of July. According to Lourens, maintaining performance below this threshold has been instrumental in preventing widespread blackouts. Internal efforts to optimise older power stations and fast-track repairs also appear to be contributing factors, suggesting a multi-layered approach to improved performance.
Progress Despite Lagging Behind Historical Peaks
While Eskom’s current EAF has not yet returned to the levels recorded in 2024, a year that saw nine consecutive months without any load-shedding, it remains considerably higher than the utility’s performance during 2023. This comparative improvement signals a positive shift, even if there is still progress to be made. Electricity output is still falling short of what was recorded in January 2019, but it is now averaging approximately 16,800 gigawatt hours per month. This represents a clear increase when compared with earlier periods of 2025, though it still trails the 17,100 GWh monthly average of 2024 and remains well below the peak of 19,000 GWh seen in 2019. This shortfall underscores the long road ahead, but the fact that production is climbing rather than declining gives policymakers and economists a reason to remain cautiously optimistic.
Expectations for Further Modest Increases in Output
Lourens predicted that electricity production could increase slightly throughout the remainder of 2025, particularly in July and August, due to the continued winter demand. He estimated that monthly generation could stabilise slightly above 17,000 gigawatt hours. However, he cautioned that achieving a complete recovery to the levels seen in 2019 is unlikely in the short term. Nonetheless, current indicators suggest that Eskom has largely moved beyond the high-risk phase for load-shedding during this winter.
Eskom’s Winter Outlook Shows Manageable Risk Levels
In its own Winter Outlook, Eskom forecast that as long as unplanned outages are kept below 13,000 megawatts, the country is expected to avoid load-shedding entirely. If unplanned losses rise to 15,000 megawatts, load-shedding would still likely be limited to no more than 21 days out of the 153-day winter period, with load-shedding not exceeding Stage 2. These projections have been supported by recent data trends, as Eskom’s hourly unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF) has remained below the 15,000 megawatt benchmark since 1 July 2025.
While this does not guarantee uninterrupted supply, it greatly reduces the risk of sudden schedule changes that have historically disrupted households and commerce alike.
National Transmission Company Confirms Adequate Capacity
The latest 52-week generation adequacy outlook released by the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA), covering the period from 7 July 2025 to 13 July 2026, further reinforces this optimistic view. The report indicates that Eskom is likely to have adequate generation capacity to meet national electricity demand and reserve margins for the majority of the coming year. The NTCSA’s projections are based on more conservative modelling, suggesting a growing institutional confidence in Eskom’s near-term performance.
The NTCSA assessment is based on two scenarios. The first is a “planned risk” model that assumes unplanned outages of 15,200 megawatts. The second is a “likely risk” model, which accounts for a more pessimistic figure of 17,200 megawatts in unplanned outages. Even under the higher-risk scenario, the system is projected to remain largely stable and capable of meeting demand. This level of resilience suggests that Eskom’s crisis planning has evolved and matured since the height of the load-shedding crisis in prior years.
Cautious Optimism Despite Remaining Challenges
Although the data reflects a period of improvement and increased resilience, analysts and observers remain cautious. The potential for unexpected breakdowns still poses a threat to system stability. However, Lourens noted that Eskom is currently operating near its peak capacity, and the utility appears to be managing demand effectively under current conditions.
With a long-standing trust deficit, Eskom still faces pressure to prove that these gains are not short-lived but part of a broader structural turnaround.
Additional insights can be drawn from Eskom’s recent data, including the 52-week forecast from 7 July 2025 to 13 July 2026, as well as recent figures from the UCLF and the Outage Capacity Loss Factor (OCLF) charts covering the past two weeks. The UCLF chart features a red dashed line representing the 15,000 megawatt threshold, which Eskom identified as a key benchmark in its Winter Outlook for 2025. This line serves as a reference point for tracking whether the utility is likely to meet its performance targets through the cold season. Whether this momentum can be sustained into the spring and summer months will be a critical test of Eskom’s operational capacity and long-term reform efforts.
Conclusion
While Eskom’s overall generation output still trails pre-pandemic levels, the latest data presents a cautiously optimistic picture. Improved maintenance strategies, effective use of reserves, and better operational planning have helped Eskom regain a degree of stability. Though concerns remain over potential breakdowns, current performance suggests the utility is in a stronger position to manage winter demand and limit load-shedding. The coming months will reveal whether this progress can be sustained and built upon.
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