Month-end figures published by the Central Energy Fund indicate that fuel price recoveries have deteriorated even further, positioning motorists for a steeper increase at the pumps next week than initially anticipated.
Key Takeaways
- Deepening underrecoveries in petrol and diesel: Latest CEF data shows petrol shortfalls of 18 to 21 cents per litre and diesel shortfalls of 62 to 65 cents per litre, pointing to mounting pricing pressure.
- March 2026 increases effectively confirmed: Sustained negative recoveries make fuel price hikes on Wednesday, 4 March 2026, highly likely pending official confirmation.
- Diesel users face the biggest impact: Larger projected increases in diesel will disproportionately affect transport, agriculture and logistics sectors.
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Fuel Underrecoveries Signal Imminent March 2026 Price Hikes Across Petrol and Diesel
The most recent data reflects that petrol price recoveries have slipped deeper into negative territory, currently ranging between minus 18 cents per litre and minus 21 cents per litre.
Diesel recoveries have also weakened notably since mid-month, with underrecoveries now recorded between minus 62 cents per litre and minus 65 cents per litre.
These sustained underrecoveries effectively point to near certain fuel price increases next week, when the official adjustments are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, 4 March 2026.
The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources is expected to confirm and publish the final price adjustments in the coming days following its customary review of the month-end data.
Expected Fuel Price Adjustments for March 2026
The anticipated changes, based on the latest Central Energy Fund data, are outlined below:
| Fuel Type | Expected Change |
|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | Increase of 18 cents per litre |
| Petrol 95 | Increase of 21 cents per litre |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | Increase of 62 cents per litre |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | Increase of 65 cents per litre |
| Illuminating paraffin | Increase of 45 cents per litre |
Motorists who rely on diesel powered vehicles, particularly those in logistics, agriculture and freight sectors, are likely to feel the greatest pressure due to the significantly larger increases in diesel prices.
Households and businesses can consider filling up before midnight on Tuesday, 3 March 2026, to avoid the higher tariffs that will apply from Wednesday morning.
Higher Global Oil Prices Drive Underrecoveries
The principal factor behind the deteriorating fuel recoveries has been the sharp increase in international oil prices, which directly raises the cost of imported refined petroleum products.
South Africa no longer operates sufficient domestic refining capacity to meet demand and therefore relies heavily on importing finished petroleum products from international markets. This structural reliance exposes the country to global price volatility.
Encouragingly, the appreciation of the rand against the United States dollar has helped to cushion the blow by reducing the rand cost of imports, partially offsetting the increase in dollar-denominated oil prices.
Higher international product prices have contributed approximately minus 36 cents per litre to petrol recoveries and around minus 83 cents per litre to diesel recoveries during the month.
By contrast, the stronger rand has delivered a positive contribution of roughly 18 cents per litre, mitigating some of the negative impact stemming from higher global product prices.
Fuel prices in South Africa are adjusted monthly based on a regulated pricing formula that takes into account international product prices, the rand dollar exchange rate, transport costs, wholesale and retail margins, and government levies.
Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil Above 70 Dollars per Barrel
At the beginning of the year, global oil prices were trading below 58 dollars per barrel. However, they surged beyond 70 dollars per barrel as geopolitical tensions escalated, particularly between the United States and Iran.
Oil prices are currently trading at approximately 72 dollars per barrel, reflecting heightened risk premiums in global energy markets.
Although the United States and Iran have agreed to resume nuclear discussions next week, the significant deployment of American military forces in the Middle East continues to keep traders cautious and markets sensitive to any further developments.
Analysts have noted that oil prices have remained elevated this year as concerns over a possible United States strike on Iran have counterbalanced expectations of a broader global supply glut.
Market participants are also closely monitoring an upcoming OPEC+ supply meeting scheduled for Sunday, as any decision regarding production quotas could materially influence short term price direction.
Volatility in oil prices often feeds through to local fuel costs with a lag of several weeks, meaning motorists should keep an eye on both geopolitical news and exchange rate movements when anticipating future price changes.
The Rand Provides Partial Relief
Running counter to the upward pressure from higher oil prices is the continued resilience of the South African rand, which has strengthened meaningfully over the past year and entered 2026 on firmer footing.
Following the 2026 Budget Speech delivered this week, the rand maintained its stronger trajectory against the United States dollar.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented a budget that analysts interpreted as reinforcing government’s commitment to restoring fiscal discipline and stabilising public finances.
The announcement of a forthcoming fiscal anchor appeared to resonate positively with investors and market operators, contributing to the rand appreciating to R15.83 per dollar at the time.
Subsequent market developments and anticipation of monthly economic releases from the central bank and National Treasury have seen the rand trade around R15.90 per dollar.
This level places the currency within what analysts describe as its fair value range and marks its strongest position against the dollar in nearly four years.
A stronger rand reduces the landed cost of imported fuel because international oil is priced in dollars, meaning currency movements can significantly influence monthly fuel price outcomes.
Additional Fuel Tax Increase from April
Despite the supportive reaction in financial markets to the budget and the relative strength of the rand, motorists are still set to face further pressure in the coming months.
In the 2026 Budget, Godongwana confirmed a 21 cent per litre increase in fuel levies, which will be incorporated into both petrol and diesel prices from April.
This levy adjustment will be separate from the monthly over or underrecoveries and will permanently lift the base price of fuel going forward.
Conclusion
The continued deterioration in fuel price recoveries has all but cemented price increases for March 2026, with diesel motorists set to absorb the heaviest burden. Although the official adjustments will be confirmed by the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, the current Central Energy Fund data leaves little room for relief. Households and businesses should prepare for higher transport and operating costs, particularly those heavily dependent on diesel, as global pricing pressures continue to filter through to the local market.
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