South African motorists are heading into February with renewed optimism, as fuel prices are once again expected to move lower. Updated data released late in the month indicates that both petrol and diesel are likely to see further price reductions when the new prices take effect on Wednesday, 5 February.
Key Takeaways
- Another Fuel Price Cut Likely In February: Late-month data indicate that both petrol and diesel prices are set to fall again from 5 February, extending the relief already seen after January’s significant reductions.
- Strong Rand Is The Main Driver: The South African rand’s appreciation to four-year highs against the US dollar has created fuel price over recoveries, helping to offset higher international oil prices.
- Global Risks Still Cap The Gains: Rising Brent crude prices, supply disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions are limiting how much further fuel prices can decline despite favourable local currency conditions.
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Further Fuel Price Relief On The Cards
According to unaudited figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) as of 27 January, fuel price over recoveries have widened enough to support another round of decreases across all major fuel categories.
Based on the latest data:
| Fuel Type | Grade / Category | Expected Change (per litre) |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol | 95 Unleaded | ↓ 66 cents |
| Petrol | 93 Unleaded | ↓ 64 cents |
| Diesel | 500ppm Diesel | ↓ 60 cents |
| Diesel | 50ppm Diesel | ↓ 67 cents |
If these adjustments are confirmed at month end, motorists can expect noticeable relief at the pump, particularly when compared with price levels seen throughout much of 2024.
Fuel price adjustments in South Africa are calculated monthly, using a combination of international oil prices and the rand exchange rate over a fixed review period, rather than daily market movements.
What This Means For Pump Prices
Should the current estimates hold until the official announcement, the anticipated retail prices would look as follows:
| Fuel Type | Coastal Regions | Inland Regions |
| 95 Unleaded | ± R19.26 per litre | ± R20.09 per litre |
| 93 Unleaded | Not applicable | ± R20.00 per litre |
These levels would place fuel prices at their lowest point since February 2022, reinforcing the sense of sustained relief for consumers.
Inland fuel prices remain higher than coastal prices due to transport and distribution costs associated with moving fuel inland from ports.
Rand Strength Driving Over-Recoveries
One of the key contributors to the current over recovery is the continued strength of the South African rand. Over the past week, the local currency appreciated to its strongest level against the US dollar in approximately four years.
A firmer rand reduces the cost of importing refined fuel and crude oil, helping to offset upward pressure from international energy markets. This currency strength has played a central role in supporting fuel price reductions for both petrol and diesel.
However, the benefits of a stronger rand have been partially tempered by developments in global oil markets.
International Oil Prices Limiting The Downside
While the exchange rate has been supportive, international oil prices have been trending higher in recent weeks, preventing fuel prices from falling even further.
Brent crude oil prices have found support due to several global supply concerns, including:
- Production outages and voluntary output cutbacks by major producers
- Severe winter storms in parts of the United States, which disrupted Gulf Coast oil production
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
In particular, concerns around potential supply disruptions involving Iran and broader Middle Eastern instability have prompted traders to factor in a risk premium, keeping oil prices elevated.
Even when oil supply disruptions do not materialise, the perceived risk alone can keep prices higher, as markets tend to price in worst case scenarios.
January’s Significant Fuel Price Cuts
Earlier in January, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources confirmed substantial fuel price reductions, which laid the groundwork for the current low price environment.
January’s adjustments included:
| Fuel Type | Grade | Reduction |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol | 93 Unleaded | ↓ 62 cents per litre |
| Petrol | 95 Unleaded | ↓ 66 cents per litre |
| Diesel | 500ppm Diesel | ↓ R1.37 per litre |
| Diesel | 50ppm Diesel | ↓ R1.50 per litre |
As a result, current pump prices stand at approximately:
| Fuel Type | Grade | Location | Price per Litre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol | 95 Unleaded | Coast | R19.92 |
| Petrol | 95 Unleaded | Inland | R20.75 |
| Petrol | 93 Unleaded | Inland | R20.64 |
These levels represent a marked improvement for households and businesses alike, especially those sensitive to transport and logistics costs.
Lower fuel prices can take several weeks to fully filter through to food prices and transport tariffs, as retailers and service providers adjust gradually.
Outlook Heading Into February
With fuel prices already at multi-year lows and another reduction likely in early February, South African motorists are benefiting from a rare alignment of favourable exchange rate dynamics and manageable global oil conditions.
That said, the fuel price outlook remains sensitive to sudden shifts in geopolitical risk, currency volatility, and international production trends, meaning that sustained relief cannot be taken for granted beyond the short term.
Conclusion
South African motorists are entering February in a far stronger position than at any point in the past few years, with fuel prices expected to edge lower again thanks to a resilient rand and lingering over recoveries from January. While international oil prices and geopolitical risks are preventing deeper cuts, the current environment still offers meaningful relief for households and businesses grappling with transport and operating costs. However, the outlook remains finely balanced, and any sudden shift in global sentiment or currency dynamics could quickly alter the trajectory of fuel prices in the months ahead.
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