Motorists across South Africa appear to be heading for more expensive fuel in July 2025, according to the latest official data now available. This follows what had initially looked like a welcome break for consumers in June, but hopes of continued relief have quickly faded amid global tensions and shifting market conditions.
Key Takeaways
- Fuel Prices Set To Rise In July 2025: Early projections from the Central Energy Fund suggest that petrol and diesel prices in South Africa will increase in July, reversing the recent price cuts seen earlier in June. The expected rises are between 15 and 25 cents per litre.
- Global Tensions Driving Costs Higher: The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has caused international oil prices to spike and weakened the rand, both of which are contributing to the projected fuel price hikes.
- Final Prices To Be Confirmed Soon: The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will confirm the exact petrol and diesel price adjustments in early July, with the new rates coming into effect from midnight on 1 July 2025. Consumers are advised to manage fuel usage carefully in the interim.
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Latest Forecast Points To Higher Petrol Prices In July 2025
Earlier this month, vehicle owners benefited from a notable drop in the cost of both petrol and diesel, and initial indications suggested that further reductions could have been expected in the coming month.
However, that outlook has now shifted dramatically following the military action by Israel against Iran late last week, which in turn has pushed up the brent crude oil price while causing the rand to weaken. The geopolitical instability has triggered volatility across global oil markets, with immediate ripple effects for oil-importing countries like South Africa. Local currency depreciation only worsens the impact, as fuel imports become more expensive to finance.
Outlined below are the most recent projections provided to The South African website by the Central Energy Fund (CEF), reflecting data as at Tuesday, 17 June 2025. These provisional figures are based on mid-month averages and remain subject to change, but they provide a critical early warning for consumers and transport operators alike.
Latest Projected Fuel Price Changes For July 2025
- Petrol 93: projected increase of 15 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: projected increase of 18 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05%: projected increase of 24 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: projected increase of 25 cents per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin: projected increase of 15 cents per litre
These increases, while modest in isolation, come on the back of months of fluctuating pricing and rising transport costs, which continue to erode household spending power.
If prevailing market trends were to hold steady through the remainder of June, though this remains unlikely given the ongoing fluctuations in both the rand to dollar exchange rate and oil prices, motorists filling up with petrol 93 octane could expect an increase of around 15 cents per litre. For those using petrol 95, the expected rise would be around 18 cents per litre. These projected hikes will push pump prices closer to levels last seen during early 2024, placing additional strain on everyday consumers and small businesses reliant on vehicle mobility.
Similarly, diesel users could see an increase of between 24 and 25 cents per litre at the pump. Illuminating paraffin prices are also projected to climb by 15 cents per litre. This is particularly concerning for low-income households that rely on paraffin for heating, lighting, and cooking, especially during the winter months.
Key Factors Influencing South Africa’s Fuel Prices
The primary influences on local fuel prices remain consistent:
Firstly, the global price of petroleum products, which is largely driven by movements in the international price of crude oil.
Secondly, the rand to dollar exchange rate used when purchasing these petroleum products. The cumulative effect of both factors means even small shifts can lead to noticeable price changes at the pump. Global oil production levels, demand forecasts, shipping costs, and domestic inflationary pressure all feed into the final fuel cost.
Current Oil Price
At the time of writing, the brent crude oil price is recorded at $76.16 per barrel. This is a significant jump from the average seen earlier this quarter and reflects growing market nervousness about prolonged conflict in the Middle East. If this trend continues, oil could easily breach the $80 mark before July.
Current Exchange Rate
The rand to dollar exchange rate is currently sitting at R18.10 to the US dollar. This weakened position comes despite earlier signs of stabilisation, suggesting that geopolitical risk has a direct and immediate impact on South Africa’s import-dependent energy sector.
When Will The Final Petrol And Diesel Prices Be Confirmed?
The final adjustments for both petrol and diesel prices will be announced in the early part of next month, with the revised prices set to come into effect from midnight on Tuesday, 1 July 2025. Motorists are urged to plan their fuel purchases wisely before the new rates come into force. Bulk buyers and logistics companies may want to refuel before the expected surge.
Until that time, South African drivers are advised to exercise caution with fuel usage. Conserving petrol and diesel in the final weeks of June could result in meaningful savings, especially for high-mileage users and public transport operators.
Current Inland and Coastal Fuel Prices For June 2025
| Fuel Type | Inland Price (R/litre) | Coastal Price (R/litre) |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R21.24 | R20.45 |
| Petrol 95 | R21.35 | R20.56 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R18.53 | R17.70 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R18.57 | R17.81 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R12.49 | R11.47 |
Any further increase will push petrol prices in inland regions closer to the R21.50 mark, a threshold that could reignite calls for relief measures or fuel levy adjustments.
Coastal prices remain slightly lower than inland figures due to transport cost differences, but the projected hikes will still hit port cities and surrounding areas hard.
Conclusion
South African motorists should prepare for higher fuel costs in July 2025, as geopolitical instability and a weaker rand are driving up oil prices and import costs. With increases of up to 25 cents per litre projected, both private and commercial transport budgets will be affected. Households using illuminating paraffin will also face steeper prices during winter. While final fuel price adjustments will only be confirmed at the start of July, the latest forecasts suggest that cautious fuel management in the weeks ahead would be wise.
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