Energy analysts and power sector specialists have cautioned that South Africa should avoid becoming complacent about the current suspension of load shedding, warning that the absence of rolling blackouts does not mean the country’s electricity crisis has been permanently resolved.
Key Takeaways
- Load Shedding Risk Remains: Despite the current pause in power cuts, experts warn that electricity shortages could return by the end of the decade if structural reforms and new generation capacity are not introduced.
- Coal Plant Retirements Create Supply Pressure: The planned shutdown of ageing coal-fired power stations is expected to remove more than 5 GW of capacity from the grid, increasing the risk of a supply-demand imbalance.
- Renewables and Storage Seen as Fastest Solution: Energy specialists believe solar, wind, and battery storage offer the quickest way to add new electricity capacity while longer-term options such as nuclear face lengthy development timelines.
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Risk of Load Shedding Returning Later This Decade
They stress that the risk of power shortages returning before the end of the decade remains significant unless structural reforms, new generation capacity, and grid upgrades are implemented with urgency.
According to Eskom’s Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2026 to 2030, which was published in October 2025, the national power utility itself anticipates that load shedding could reappear later in the decade under certain scenarios.
Energy planners often analyse electricity supply using long-term adequacy outlooks that assess generation capacity, expected demand growth, maintenance schedules, and plant retirements. These reports help governments and utilities identify potential supply gaps years before they occur so that new power projects and grid upgrades can be planned in advance.
What Eskom Means by ‘Unserved Energy’
In the report, Eskom deliberately used the term “unserved energy” rather than the more commonly used phrase “load shedding” when referring to electricity supply interruptions.
In official electricity planning terminology, unserved energy describes the volume of electricity demand that cannot be met by the available generation capacity within the national grid.
Put simply, when electricity demand exceeds what the power system can supply, the result is forced power cuts – which in practical terms are the rolling blackouts South Africans know as load shedding.
The adequacy outlook indicates that the probability of these supply shortfalls increases noticeably toward the end of the decade, particularly during the years 2029 and 2030.
Eskom explained in its modelling that generation inadequacy remains the principal factor driving the risk of unserved energy across multiple future scenarios and planning assumptions.
The report highlights that unserved energy begins to rise from 2029 onwards, largely because several ageing coal-fired power stations are scheduled to be retired from service during that period.
These plant retirements are expected to remove approximately 5.26 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity from the national system.
In practical terms, the closure of older coal power stations will temporarily reduce available electricity supply before new generation sources are fully operational, creating a potential gap between electricity supply and demand.
South Africa’s total electricity demand typically ranges between 30 GW and 35 GW during peak periods, which means the loss of more than 5 GW of capacity represents a substantial portion of the system’s available generation.
Structural Problems in the Electricity Sector
During an interview with BizNews, Synthesis Power Solutions director and energy specialist Thomas Garner explained that the absence of load shedding in the present moment should not be interpreted as a sign that the country’s underlying electricity challenges have been permanently resolved.
Garner noted that while the recent stability in electricity supply has provided relief for households and businesses, it has also created a perception among the public that the crisis has passed.
He explained that South Africa’s electricity problems remain fundamentally systemic and are closely linked to the long-standing monopolistic structure of Eskom’s electricity generation and distribution model.
Garner was responding directly to Eskom’s adequacy outlook, which identified a growing probability that load shedding could return around 2029.
Coal Plant Decommissioning Creates Future Supply Risk
Garner explained that one of the most significant risks arises from the planned retirement of several ageing coal-fired power stations at the same time that national electricity demand is expected to grow.
The power stations scheduled for decommissioning include:
- Camden Power Station
- Grootvlei Power Station
- Hendrina Power Station
These facilities currently contribute meaningful capacity to the national grid, but their operational lifespans are nearing completion and they are not expected to remain in service beyond the end of the decade.
Garner indicated that although these stations continue to play an important role in stabilising the grid today, they cannot be relied upon as long-term generation assets after 2029.
At the same time, government policy is strongly focused on stimulating economic growth and industrial expansion, both of which will inevitably increase electricity consumption across the country.
If electricity demand rises while generation capacity declines due to plant retirements, the result is a structural imbalance between supply and demand within the power system.
Garner warned that this imbalance could significantly increase the probability of load shedding returning unless new capacity is introduced quickly enough to replace the retiring coal stations.
Several of South Africa’s large coal power stations were built during the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. Many were originally designed to operate for roughly 40 years, meaning a number of them are now operating well beyond their intended lifespan.
Why New Coal Power Is Not a Practical Solution
Garner argued that constructing new coal-fired power stations is no longer considered a practical or economically viable option for South Africa.
One of the primary challenges is the extremely long construction timelines associated with large coal plants.
According to Garner, coal power stations typically require around 15 years from the planning stage through to commissioning and full commercial operation.
Such lengthy timelines mean coal plants cannot realistically solve the near-term electricity supply gap expected later in the decade.
In addition to construction timelines, financing coal projects has become increasingly difficult because international lenders and investors are moving away from fossil fuel projects due to environmental commitments and climate policies.
Global financial institutions, including major development banks, have significantly reduced funding for new coal projects, which has made it harder for countries to finance large-scale coal generation.
Nuclear Power Faces Long Development Timelines
Garner also addressed the potential role of nuclear energy in South Africa’s future power mix.
While recent international nuclear projects demonstrate that plants can sometimes be delivered within planned schedules, nuclear power development still involves extremely long lead times.
He noted that nuclear projects typically require between 15 and 20 years from the earliest planning stages to the point where electricity is generated and supplied to the grid.
Even if South Africa were to develop new nuclear capacity near Koeberg Nuclear Power Station and at the proposed Thyspunt site in the Eastern Cape, the total additional generation capacity would likely amount to roughly 3.6 GW over two decades.
The slow development cycle means nuclear power cannot easily address the immediate supply gap expected toward the end of the decade.
Gas Power Also Faces Infrastructure Constraints
Gas-to-power generation is often presented as a flexible solution for electricity systems that need to balance renewable energy sources.
However, Garner noted that gas power development in South Africa faces its own set of challenges.
These include:
- Uncertainty around gas supply from regional fields in Mozambique
- The need for new import terminals and regasification infrastructure
- Environmental approvals and regulatory hurdles
Without sufficient gas infrastructure, large-scale gas power projects may struggle to supply reliable fuel to power stations.
Renewables and Battery Storage Offer Faster Solutions
Given these constraints, Garner believes that renewable energy technologies combined with battery storage systems represent the fastest pathway to expanding South Africa’s electricity capacity.
He highlighted that the private sector has already played a significant role in expanding renewable capacity in recent years.
Over the past four years, an estimated six to eight gigawatts of behind-the-meter solar capacity has been installed across South Africa.
Behind-the-meter solar refers to solar systems installed at homes, businesses, factories, and commercial facilities that generate electricity directly for on-site use rather than feeding power into the national grid.
When compared to the roughly 3.6 GW of nuclear capacity that could potentially be developed over two decades, the rapid pace of private solar adoption illustrates how quickly renewable generation can be deployed.
Garner emphasised that battery energy storage systems are particularly important for improving the flexibility and resilience of the electricity grid.
Battery storage allows electricity generated from renewable sources such as wind and solar to be stored during periods of high production and released later when demand increases or renewable output falls.
How Battery Storage Helps The Grid
Battery systems can strengthen the electricity grid in several ways:
- Storing excess solar and wind energy during peak production periods
- Supplying electricity during evening demand peaks
- Stabilising voltage and frequency within the grid
- Reducing reliance on expensive diesel generators
Large grid-scale battery systems are already being deployed in several countries and can respond to electricity demand changes within seconds, helping stabilise power systems that rely on intermittent renewable energy.
Recent Improvements at Eskom
Garner acknowledged that there have been meaningful improvements within Eskom’s operations under its current leadership.
These improvements include higher levels of power station availability, better maintenance practices, and a noticeable reduction in the use of expensive diesel-powered generators.
These operational gains have played a role in reducing the frequency and severity of load shedding in recent months.
However, Garner cautioned that these improvements alone will not be sufficient to guarantee long-term electricity stability.
Key Risks Facing South Africa’s Electricity Supply
Several structural risks remain within the electricity sector:
| Risk Factor | Impact On Electricity Supply |
|---|---|
| Coal plant retirements | Removal of more than 5 GW of generation capacity |
| Rising electricity demand | Economic growth increases energy consumption |
| Slow development of nuclear projects | New capacity takes decades to build |
| Gas infrastructure constraints | Limits expansion of gas-fired power |
| Grid limitations | Renewable energy cannot always be transmitted efficiently |
South Africa has one of the largest electricity grids in Africa, stretching over 30,000 kilometres of transmission lines connecting power stations to cities, industries, and municipalities.
The Importance of Grid Expansion and Market Reform
Garner ultimately warned that unless South Africa accelerates the expansion of its electricity transmission grid, increases investment in renewable generation and storage technologies, and completes the restructuring of Eskom’s electricity market, the risk of load shedding returning later in the decade remains substantial.
He indicated that fully unbundling Eskom into separate generation, transmission, and distribution entities could help improve competition, attract private investment, and create a more resilient electricity system.
Without these structural changes, South Africa may once again face electricity supply shortages as early as 2029, despite the current period of stability in the national power grid.
Conclusion
Although South Africa is currently experiencing a period without load shedding, energy experts caution that this stability may only be temporary unless deeper structural reforms are implemented within the electricity sector. The planned retirement of ageing coal-fired power stations, combined with rising electricity demand from economic growth, could create a significant supply gap later in the decade. While improvements in Eskom’s operational performance have helped stabilise the grid in the short term, long-term energy security will depend on expanding transmission infrastructure, accelerating renewable energy deployment, integrating battery storage, and encouraging greater private sector participation in electricity generation. Without these measures, the likelihood of load shedding returning by around 2029 remains a real and growing concern.
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